Try your hand at using critical thinking to resolve these problems.
Assess your ability to identify the problem
1. A study reveals a strong correlation between the number of psychology courses students take and higher scores on a measure of interpersonal sensitivity. Using critical thinking, what can you conclude from this?
You cannot conclude that psychology courses improve interpersonal sensitivity. A correlation does not indicate causation. There are a number of alternative explanations for the correlation. For example, students who have taken a high number of courses have generally spent more time interacting with people, which might account for the increased scores. How many other alternate explanations can you think of?
2. Is this a valid argument?
All cats are animals.
All animals are loud.
So, all cats are loud.
Technically, yes, since the conclusion follows the logic of the premises. However, being valid is not the same as being sound. To be a sound argument, all premises must be true. A critical thinker doesn't blindly apply logic to a situation, but analyzes it to determine the problem.
3. Is this a sound argument?
If my astrologer is clairvoyant, then she predicted my travel plans correctly.
She predicted my travel plans correctly.
So, my astrologer is clairvoyant.
While both premises are true, the argument is not sound because the conclusion can still be false. For example, she could have predicted the travel plans based on outside information.
4. If there are 5 apples on the counter and you take away 2, how many do you have?
You have 2 apples. There are 3 left on the counter, but you have 2. Part of identifying the problem is understanding what is being asked.
Assess your ability to avoid bias
1. Do they have a fourth of July in England?
A. Yes
B. No
Yes, it comes after the 3rd of July. Did you assume the question was about an American holiday? Why?
2. Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the programs are as follows.
Which would you choose?
Program A: 200 people will be saved
Program B: there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved, and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved
When given to a test group, 72% of participants preferred program A (the remainder, 28%, opted for program B).
What about between these programs?
Program C: "400 people will die"
Program D: "there is a one-third probability that nobody will die, and a two-third probability that 600 people will die"
Given these choices, 78% preferred program D, with the remaining 22% opting for program C.
Programs A and C are effectively identical, as are programs B and D. The change in the decision frame between the two groups of participants produced a preference reversal, with the first group preferring program A/C and the second group preferring B/D. This is an example of a framing fallacy.
3. Johnny's mother had three children. The first child was named April. The second child was named May. What was the third child's name?
Johnny, he's the third child. Humans tend to perceive patterns in data, even when there's not enough evidence to support it (or even when there's evidence to the contrary.)
4. How can a woman living in New Jersey legally marry 3 men, without ever getting a divorce, being widowed, or becoming legally separated?
It's her job, she's a Justice of the Peace or a Minister. Try this question again, flipping the genders. Was it easier to solve?
5. There are 4 cards. Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other side. Which card(s) must you turn over to determine whether the following statement is false?
If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.
A and 7. This is an example of confirmation bias. The only way to falsify an "if X, then Y" statement ("if vowel, then even number") is by finding an instance of "X and not Y" ("vowel and odd number"). D and 4 are irrelevant, because these cards cannot combine a vowel and odd number.
Assess your ability to prioritize solutions
Using critical thinking skills, determine the most probable intent of the following statements.
1. Visiting relatives can be boring.
A. The relatives who are visiting are boring.
B. It is boring to visit relatives.
Because the language is ambiguous, either statement could be true. You need to evaluate the statements in context of the larger picture. Here it is important to have mastered the Explore Stage, or your biases could lead you to faulty conclusions. The most likely interpretation of this statement is "A. The relatives who are visiting are boring."
2. The policemen were told to stop drinking at midnight.
A. At midnight, the policemen were told to stop drinking.
B. The police must stop drinking at midnight.
Again, the ambiguous language could support either answer and you must consider context. The intent of the statement can reasonably be assumed to be that the policemen shouldn't be drinking. It could be that the policemen were told to stop when the drinking problem was noticed, at midnight, rather than they were allowed to drink up until midnight, and then must stop. However, it might also be that the police were only drinking at midnight, when the police station would perhaps be quiet, and not at other times.
3. I wrote a story about an encounter I had with a raccoon early in the morning.
A. I wrote a raccoon encounter story early in the morning.
B. I wrote a story about an early morning raccoon encounter.
The most likely interpretation of this statement is "A. I wrote a raccoon encounter story early in the morning." Raccoons tend to be night creatures and therefor would be unlikely, although still possible, to encounter in the morning. Critical thinking skills help to prioritize solutions by evaluating and ranking the solution choices, but do not provide a certainty.
4. A man is found hanging in a room 30 feet off the ground. There is nothing else in the room except for a large puddle of water on the ground. The police can't see any way the man could have climbed the walls to get to where he is hanging.
How did this man hang himself?
He stood on a tall block of ice and put the noose around his neck. Once the ice melted, he was hung, and all that was left was a puddle of water on the ground.